LONDON, (PIC)
A research study published on Friday in the medical journal ‘The Lancet’ reported that the death toll in the Gaza Strip during the first nine months of the devastating war that Israel continues to wage is approximately 40% higher compared to the figures provided by the Ministry of Health in the region.
On June 30, 2024, the Ministry of Health in Gaza reported that the death toll from the war reached 37,877. However, the new study, which relied on data from the ministry, an online survey, and obituary data from social media, concluded that the estimated number of deaths due to war injuries in the Gaza Strip ranged between 55,298 and 78,525 during that period.
The best estimate for the death toll in the study is 64,260, which means it exceeds the figures published by the Ministry of Health for that period by 41%.
The study noted that this number represents 2.9% of the population of Gaza before the war, or about one in every 35 citizens in the region. According to the researchers’ estimates, 59% of the victims are women, children, and the elderly.
The announced number only includes deaths from war-related injuries and does not account for deaths caused by other factors such as lack of healthcare or food, nor does it include the thousands of missing persons believed to be buried under the rubble.
The study indicated that the Palestinian Ministry of Health’s ability to maintain electronic records of deaths has previously proven reliable, but it has deteriorated amid the Israeli military campaign, which included raids on hospitals and other healthcare facilities and disruptions in digital communications.
On Thursday, the Ministry of Health in Gaza announced that the number of martyrs from the Israeli aggression has risen to 46,006, with 109,378 injured since October 7, 2023.
Three approaches to counting
The researchers employed a statistical method known as “capture-recapture” analysis, which has been previously used to estimate death tolls in other conflicts worldwide.
The analysis was based on data from three different lists: the first provided by the Ministry of Health in Gaza for identified bodies in hospitals or morgues. The second list was derived from an online survey launched by the Ministry of Health, where Palestinians reported the deaths of their relatives. The third list relied on obituary data published on social media networks such as X, Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp, whenever the identity of the deceased could be verified.
The principal investigator of the study, Zeina Jamaluddin, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, stated in a statement to Agence France-Presse, “We kept only those in the analysis whose deaths were confirmed by their relatives or morgues or hospitals.”
The researchers scrutinized the three lists for any repeated data. Zeina added, “Afterward, we looked at the overlap between the three lists, and based on the overlap, you can get an overall estimate of the population that was killed.”
Patrick Ball, a statistician at the U.S.-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group, who did not participate in the research study, has used “capture-recapture” methods to estimate death tolls in conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru, and Colombia. He told Agence France-Presse that the well-tested technique has been used for centuries, and the researchers arrived at a “good estimate” regarding Gaza.
For his part, Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at the Open University in the UK, noted that there is “definitely a lot of uncertainty” when making estimates based on incomplete data. However, he said it is “impressive” that the researchers used three different approaches to statistical analysis to verify their estimates. He added, “Overall, I find these estimates reasonably convincing.”
Nonetheless, there is evidence to support the hypothesis that the announced toll of the war is less than reality, as the research study did not include missing persons.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that about 10,000 missing Gazans are buried under the rubble.
The war can also indirectly cause loss of life, including due to lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation, or disease outbreaks, all of which have afflicted the Gaza Strip since October 2023.
In a controversial message published in “The Lancet” last July, another group of researchers relied on the indirect mortality rate recorded in other conflicts to suggest that the death toll in Gaza could ultimately be estimated at around 186,000.
The new study considered these estimates “may be inappropriate due to clear differences in the burden of diseases before the war” in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries like Burundi and East Timor.
Zeina Jamaluddin anticipated that “criticism will come from various parties” regarding this new research study, condemning what she called the “obsession” with debating the death toll, stating, “We already know there are far too many deaths.”
GMO calls for international support to figure out the exact number of victims
Meanwhile, the Government Media Office (GMO) in the Gaza Strip expressed its deep concern in a statement on Friday regarding the results of the British study published in “The Lancet,” which indicates that the number of deaths (martyrs) resulting from violent injuries in the Gaza Strip between October 7, 2023, and June 30, 2024, has reached 64,260, significantly exceeding the figures announced by the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which only reports the number of martyrs who reach hospitals. This also reflects the extent of the disaster inflicted by the Israeli occupation army on civilians and civil sectors and facilities in the Gaza Strip.
It emphasized that this gap results from the existing failure to register all the victims killed by the Israeli occupation across all governorates, amid catastrophic humanitarian conditions and the restrictive standards adhered to by the Palestinian Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip.
The GMO pointed to the ongoing killings, siege, targeting of medical teams, destruction of hospitals, and obstruction of civil defense teams’ work, which hinder efforts to recover thousands of bodies and bury them, making the reported statistics reflect only a limited part of the grim reality experienced by the Palestinian people.
The Office called on the international community, the United Nations, and various institutions and organizations “to provide the necessary support to help us register the true number of victims, which exceeds what is officially announced by a significant margin, as indicated by the British study.”
It also called for enabling rescue and civil defense teams to access the affected and damaged areas due to the Israeli aggression to recover the bodies and ensure their dignified burial, in accordance with heavenly religions and international humanitarian standards.
The GMO urged the international community and the UN Security Council to take effective and urgent action to stop the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip and lift the unjust siege imposed on more than 2,444,000 civilian people in the Gaza Strip, which has caused the largest humanitarian disaster in decades.
