Fri 25-October-2024

Will the Israeli massacres in Gaza ignite a regional war?

Friday 3-November-2023

This question is being frequently raised these days in the corridors of regional and Western politics and intelligence especially with the increasing pace of massacres committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip.

Everyone is waiting for any statement or gesture from a US official to be interpreted analyzed and deciphered especially after the open military and political support of the United States to Tel Aviv.

In response to these questions and concerns former US Ambassador to Damascus Robert Ford says “America does not want a regional war.”

Ford continued in an interview with Al Jazeera TV Channel saying “The US is busy helping Ukraine and is concerned with the situation with China and East Asia specifically in the South China Sea.”

He opined that it is “not a regional war yet and it is confined between Gaza and Israel” pointing out that “the United States and Iran are both trying to deter each other against starting a regional war.”

He added “Despite the American and Iranian efforts the possibility of escalation involving the United States and Iran is very possible.”

The former ambassador also stated that “it is unlikely that Israel will start a strategic war with Iran now because the Israeli forces are busy with the war in Gaza and want to preserve their military resources available to confront Hezbollah in Lebanon in addition to some Iranian-backed groups in the Golan Heights.”

He considered that the government in Israel under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu is divided and there are conflicts between the latter and the Israeli military command as well as political divisions within the Israeli Knesset.

He concluded that “the Biden administration in Washington does not want to start a war with Iran and the American message regarding that was very clear they will respond  to Iranian attacks or attacks by Iranian-backed groups.”

What strengthened the talk about the possibility of US military intervention in the region is what the American “Intercept” website revealed about the existence of a secret US military base on a mountain called “Har Kirin” in the Negev Desert in southern Israel saying that Washington is currently quietly expanding it.

The American website explained that US government documents referring to the construction of this base provide rare hints about the presence of US military near the Gaza Strip (mountain Har Kirin is about 32 kilometers away from the borders of Gaza).

Commenting on this report former officer in the US intelligence agency Glenn Carl explained that there are several types of military bases including those known to everyone and others referred to as “grey” bases (a term that means it has not been widely circulated but it is not considered secret) and there are “black” bases (a term that assumes it is an unknown and undiscovered secret facility).

Carl added that “Base 512” which was revealed by the “Intercept” website – falls under the category of “grey” bases explaining that he cannot confirm whether this base is involved in the Israeli war on Gaza.

He pointed out that “if Iran gets more directly involved in the conflict it would be catastrophic for the world not just for Israel or Iran or Gaza or Hamas and the war could become global.”

Carl explained that “the United States has been very clear by sending its forces that it does not actually want the conflict to extend beyond the horrors happening in Gaza.”

 

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