An Israeli newspaper has expected three likely scenarios for the political and legal future of premier Benjamin Netanyahu in view of the police’s new corruption accusations against him.
According to Jerusalem Post newspaper the first scenario for Netanyahu is that there would be no legal need for his resignation if he was indicted and the second scenario will lead his political partners to ask him to leave and call for an early election.
As for the third scenario Netanyahu’s political and legal fate could be determined in the spring of 2018.
The Israeli police on Thursday told the magistrate’s court in Rishon Letzion city that they intend to recommend to the state prosecutor (attorney general) to indict Netanyahu on bribery fraud and breach of trust yet they has not officially submitted such recommendation so far.
The police have been questioning Netanyahu for months over the cases but have yet released few details.
However the police revealed that Ari Harow Netanyahu’s former chief of staff and one-time close confidant agreed to testify against him.
The police added they reached a deal with Harow promising him a lighter court sentence over his involvement in a separate corruption case.
Last Monday Harow reportedly had to leave for the US with the police’s consent and the Israeli public broadcasting corporation affirmed there would be another round of interrogation with him after his return.
In light of such developments Jerusalem Post has come up with three possible scenarios which it called “timetables” for Netanyahu’s legal situation.
The Pro-Netanyahu timetable:
The police will need time to investigate all the new evidence they receive from their new witness Netanyahu’s former chief of staff Ari Harow. That will involve going to the US and interviewing tycoons who are not currently in the headlines.
In this scenario the police do not even end up recommending an indictment by the end of the year making chief of the Israeli police Roni Alsheich’s on-record statement in January about the investigations look ridiculous.
If the recommendation comes in early 2018 Netanyahu will be subject to hearings that will take time to schedule. Israel’s attorney general Avichai Mandelblit might not even decide whether to indict Netanyahu until after the magic date of September 23 2018 when he would pass David Ben-Gurion as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.
With that date passed and US president Donald Trump taking Netanyahu’s advice to prevent the nuclearization of Iran the accused premier might even be able to negotiate a deal to drop charges against him in return for him quitting politics.
Anti-Netanyahu timetable:
The police get so much good stuff from Harow that they decide to recommend an indictment next month before a gag order on details from his probe ends.
The evidence could be so damaging that Netanyahu’s coalition partners who currently say he can stay will beg him to go. A no-confidence vote would be held in November shortly after the Knesset returns from its extended summer recess and one of the coalition partners helps bring down Netanyahu.
In that scenario it is unlikely that another current member of the Knesset will be able to form a government so general elections will be initiated to succeed Netanyahu as head of Likud.
Netanyahu could be indicted by the end of the year though his trial would still last a very long time.
Most realistic timetable:
Jerusalem Post legal correspondent Yonah Jeremy Bob who has spent extensive time with Mandelblit estimates that the attorney-general would take three to six months to make a decision following a police recommendation to indict Netanyahu.
Police sources have leaked that the most likely time for their recommendation would be in October or November after the fall Jewish holidays.
That means Netanyahu’s fate will be decided in the spring of 2018.
If Mandelblit clears Netanyahu the legal process will end there. If he indicts him it will rapidly intensify and political processes will ensue.
Chances are a police recommendation would not change the minds of the coalition partners who desperately want more time in the current government for their own personal political reasons. But Mandelblit is highly respected across the political spectrum.
If Mandelblit decides Netanyahu needs to go an election becomes much more likely.
That election would most likely be held in the fall of 2018 with the fight against corruption a key issue in the race.
