The Trump administration’s foreign policy, rooted in the “America First” doctrine, has disrupted regional conflict resolution efforts and undermined cooperation among Middle Eastern countries.
Prioritizing unilateralism and transactional, deal-based relationships, US President Donald Trump’s approach has deepened instability, particularly through his controversial proposal to forcibly displace Gaza’s population.
While some argue that Trump’s strategy could pave the way for new agreements, such as through his overtures towards Iran, this path is dangerously fraught with the risks of alienating traditional allies and exacerbating regional tensions.
Trump does not offer a coherent or comprehensive strategy for the Middle East, focusing instead on a patchwork of specific priorities that reflect his broader worldview.
But these priorities often contradict one another – such as supporting Israeli regional dominance while pursuing an end to the war in Gaza, or negotiating a new deal with Iran while pursuing an expanded normalization framework that includes Saudi Arabia. The result is a fragmented and inconsistent agenda.
Trump’s possible endorsement of Israeli annexation of the occupied West Bank, and his suggestion of a forced takeover of Gaza, will likely derail recent normalization efforts under the Abraham Accords, and could also unravel key peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan.
These actions disregard international law and the Palestinian right to self-determination, and they risk igniting broader instability. Arab leaders have strongly rejected the idea of expelling Palestinians from Gaza, reaffirming that normalization with Israel hinges on the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Eroding trust
Trump’s approach of favoring Israeli interests over Palestinian rights not only hampers regional cooperation and conflict-resolution efforts, but could also trigger social unrest and the collapse of fragile states due to mass displacement.
Trump’s deal-centric foreign policy prioritizes immediate US gains over long-term alliances and partnerships. This has eroded the trust and stability that decades of US alliance-building once supported.
Humiliating allies and forcing renegotiations – such as with Ukraine – weakens the western alliance system that has historically underpinned global stability. In the Middle East, this translates into unreliable partnerships and a scramble by US allies to secure alternative guarantees for their national security.
Trump’s disregard for both international norms and consultation with allies undermines the global and regional cooperation needed to effectively counter violent extremism and stabilize fragile environments.
His outreach to rivals like Russia and China, at the expense of traditional allies, also alters the broader geopolitical landscape. Success in a multipolar world demands coalition-building and strategic partnerships – elements largely absent from Trump’s foreign policy vision, which sees allies more as burdens than as assets.
While Trump has expressed interest in securing a new nuclear deal with Iran, his inconsistent, coercive approach creates confusion and chaos. True regional stability requires sustained, multilateral engagement and a clear vision for a Middle East free from structural instability – goals Trump has failed to articulate or pursue.
His narrow reliance on Israel in dealing with Iran, while sidelining key stakeholders like China, European allies and other regional actors, is insufficient. Such a bilateral focus, in the absence of a broader international consensus, risks repeating past mistakes and diminishing diplomatic leverage.
Although a hardline stance could force adversaries like Iran to the negotiating table, this approach also risks alienating allies and escalating tensions if it fails to address the root causes of conflict.
Short-term thinking
Trump is often described as impatient and eager to project decisive leadership, but he consistently overlooks the long-term consequences of his actions. His tactics – such as floating the idea of occupying Gaza – appear designed to pressure Arab states into taking more responsibility for the territory. But these types of provocations often backfire, generating resentment and discouraging meaningful cooperation.
Policies that strongly favor Israel at the expense of Palestinians stoke public anger in Arab countries and destabilize regimes. Although Trump did not support Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s calls for striking Iranian nuclear facilities, his rhetoric keeps military threats on the table, further heightening regional uncertainty.
The Trump administration’s cuts to diplomatic staff, suspension of aid, and halt to development programs have crippled key tools for stabilization. Freezing aid to Iraq, Syria and Yemen undermines efforts to meet critical civilian and economic needs.
Moves such as ending Iraq’s waiver for Iranian electricity imports further weaken its already fragile infrastructure. Similarly, re-designating the Houthis as a terrorist organization serves to worsen Yemen’s humanitarian crisis.
The US has also remained largely disengaged from diplomatic efforts with Syria’s new government, which has expressed a willingness to counter Iranian influence and combat terrorism. In fragile states, a lack of engagement creates fertile ground for extremism and chaos.
Despite outreach from the new Syrian leadership, the US has left diplomacy to regional and European actors. This disengagement leaves Syria vulnerable, particularly as US sanctions remain in place and Israeli air strikes continue. The lack of support hampers the government’s ability to meet the population’s basic needs, creating a vacuum that extremist groups like the Islamic State could exploit.
Prolonging war
In Gaza, Netanyahu has played a key role in prolonging the war, largely to satisfy his far-right coalition and avoid investigations into his responsibility for the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack. His critics – including Israeli opposition figures and families of hostages – accuse him of using the war as a tool to remain in power and escape prosecution for corruption.
Trump’s rhetoric on forced displacement emboldens Israel’s far-right ministers and enables Netanyahu’s increasingly extreme policies. This trajectory could fuel a direct conflict between Israel and Jordan, a country highly sensitive to the potential influx of Palestinian refugees.
Netanyahu’s reliance on a nationalist-religious coalition also fuels ambitions of annexing the West Bank and Gaza – objectives that threaten regional stability.
The ongoing war in Gaza, rooted in Netanyahu’s political calculus, has directly obstructed Trump’s goal of expanding the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia.
While Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, attempted to mediate a ceasefire, Netanyahu’s reluctance to negotiate the next phase stalled progress. As a result, hostages remain in captivity, aid deliveries are delayed, and fighting has resumed – without any meaningful pressure from Trump on Netanyahu to compromise.
Washington’s enabling of Israel’s genocide of Palestinians has become a core grievance, lending credence to the narrative that the US is an existential threat, and potentially fueling a resurgence of armed groups against the country’s interests.
Both Trump and Netanyahu portray expansionism as a divine right, while their support for ethno-religious nationalism frames the Palestinian struggle as a clash of civilizations. Identity-based conflicts are inherently existential; they are resistant to compromise and prone to cycles of violence, as each side seeks total victory over the other.
Ultimately, Trump and Netanyahu are steering their nations towards an aggressive, narrow ethnonationalism – one that exalts power and reserves rights for a privileged few, including conservative white Americans in the US and Jews in Israel. This vision, rooted in exclusion and domination, is not only dangerous for the region; it is profoundly destabilizing for the world.
-Hesham Gaafar is a researcher specializing in Islamic thought and movements and conflict resolution. He served as editor-in-chief of the Arabic section of IslamOnline.net portal from 2000 to 2010. He co-founded the Regional Center for Mediation and Dialogue and serves as a consultant to a number of international institutions in the field of conflict resolution. His article appeared in the Middle East Eye.
