Israel’s assassination of the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on 31 July is part of Tel Aviv’s search for a wider regional conflict. It is a criminal act that reeks of desperation.
Almost immediately after the start of the Gaza war on 7 October, Israel hoped to use its genocide in the Strip as an opportunity to achieve its long-term goal of a regional war, one that would rope in Washington as well as Iran and other Middle Eastern countries. Despite unconditional support for its genocide in Gaza, and various conflicts throughout the region, the United States refrained from entering a direct war against Iran and others. Although defeating Iran is a strategic objective, the US lacks the will and tools to pursue a war now.
After ten months of a failed war against the Palestinians in Gaza and a military stalemate against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel is, once again, accelerating its push for a wider conflict. This time around, however, it is engaging in a high-stakes game, the most dangerous of all of its gambles.
Hence, it targeted a top Hezbollah leader by bombing a residential building in Beirut on Tuesday, and, of course, it assassinated Palestine’s most visible, as well as most popular political leader. Haniyeh succeeded in forging and strengthening ties with Russia, China and other countries beyond the US-Western political domain.
Israel chose the time and place for Haniyeh’s murder carefully.
The Palestinian leader was killed in the Iranian capital, shortly after he attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian. This sent a message both to Iran’s new administration: that it is ready to escalate further; and to Hamas: that Israel has no intention of ending the war or agreeing a negotiated ceasefire. The latter is perhaps the most urgent.
For months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has done everything in his power to impede all diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the war. By killing the top Palestinian negotiator, Israel delivered a final and decisive message that the occupation state remains invested in violence, and in nothing else.
The scale of the Israeli provocations, however, poses a great challenge to the pro-Palestinian camp in the Middle East, namely, how to respond with equally strong messages without granting Israel its wish of embroiling the whole region in a destructive war. Given the military capabilities of what is known as the “Axis of Resistance”, Iran, Hezbollah and others are certainly capable of managing this challenge despite the risks involved.
Equally important regarding timing is that the dramatic Israeli escalation in the region followed a trip to Washington by Netanyahu which, aside from many obsequious standing ovations at the US Congress, didn’t fundamentally alter the US position, predicated on unconditional support for Israel without direct US involvement in a regional war.
Furthermore, Israel’s recent clashes involving the army, military police and supporters of the far right suggest that a coup in Israel might be a real possibility. In the words of Israel’s opposition leader Yair Lapid:
“We are not on the brink of the abyss, we are in the abyss.”
It is, therefore, clear to Netanyahu and his far-right circle that they are operating within an increasingly limited time frame and narrow margins. By killing Haniyeh, a political leader who has essentially served the role of a diplomat, Israel demonstrated the extent of its desperation and the limits of its military failure.
Considering the criminal extent to which Israel is willing to go, such desperation could eventually lead to the regional war that Israel has been trying to instigate since long before the Gaza war. Keeping in mind Washington’s weakness and indecision in the face of Israel’s intransigence, the occupation state might just see its wish come true.
-Ramzy Baroud is a journalist and the Editor of the Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of five books. His latest is ‘These Chains Will Be Broken: Palestinian Stories of Struggle and Defiance in Israeli Prisons’. Baroud is a Non-resident Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA) and also at the Afro-Middle East Center (AMEC).
